Monsoon rain will arrive in Kerala on June 6, five days after its normal onset, the Met department said today. The rains, that replenish India’s farm-dependent economy, arrive on the southern tip of Kerala around June 1 and retreat from Rajasthan by September.
On Tuesday, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had said that rains will arrive on the country’s southern coast on June 4 and deliver less rain than average this year.
“This year, the statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The southwest monsoon onset is likely to set over Kerala on 6th June with a model error of plus or minus 4 days,” the weather office was quoted by news agency PTI.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the southern part of Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during May,” it added.
“The Monsoon is sluggish this time, which is why the onset will be delayed. Our forecast is that this season, the long period average will be about 95%, which is near normal,” Soma Sen Roy from the Met office told NDTV.
The delay in the arrival of monsoon may not necessarily have an impact on the overall amount of rainfall. Last year, Monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 29, three days ahead of the normal onset date. Yet, the rain was ”below-normal”.
If the monsoon arrives late, it will be third such instance since 2014 when it arrived on June 5, followed by June 6 in 2015 and June 8 in 2016